Author: James Fox

I'm a longtime Chicago Sports Fan. I teach Junior High, coach Track and Field as well as high school football. I'm a fan of the Chicago Bears, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Bulls and Chicago Blackhawks.

Possible 2020 realignment: How it affects the White Sox

by James Fox, posted in Analysis

(YouTube)

Sports of all types are obviously on the back burner during the COVID-19 pandemic, but Major League Baseball and its players’ union are discussing a couple of ways to salvage a season that once appeared likely to be lost altogether.

The Arizona Proposal

Last week, Jeff Passan of ESPN caused a stir with a column that detailed what was being called the “Arizona Proposal.”

Passan wrote that MLB and the MLBPA were “increasingly focused” on a plan to start the 2020 season as early as May in the midst of this global pandemic. The plan, which was written up in great detail, reportedly has the support of multiple high-ranking federal public health officials. The deal would see all 30 major league clubs moving to Arizona and playing games with no fans in attendance.

The state of Arizona possesses 10 spring training facilities, Chase Field (the home of the Arizona Diamondbacks) and other nearby ballparks. Players, coaching staffs and other essential personnel would be sequestered at local hotels in relative isolation during off-hours. Federal officials at the CDC have been supportive of the idea and its requirement of strict social distancing.

The Arizona Proposal presents many logistical issues, and there are some apparent hurdles that need clearance before baseball can become the first professional sport to return in America. Major League Baseball referenced the discussions but pushed back against any said plan being in motion.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic weighed in on the proposed topic as well and described the plan as “still in the concept stage” after speaking with sources. While May was initially floated as a return possibility, June seems more realistic. Both Passan and Rosenthal referenced the possibility of significant increases in coronavirus testing capabilities (providing almost immediate results) being something on the horizon.

Many players will be understandably skeptical of separating from their families for an extended period of time. Summer heat in Arizona is also brutal, and will be another obstacle for all involved. The players’ union has stated emphatically that while the athletes would like to play baseball games, the protection of the players is the highest current priority.

Rosenthal noted that one potential bargaining chip for the players would be the expansion of big league rosters. Expanded rosters up to as many as 50 players is an option. While this plan seems like a logistical nightmare to many in and outside the industry, something that has been made clear is that the majority of players would prefer to play in some fashion.

Baseball players could never be described as risk-averse and while the plan doesn’t appear to be set in stone, it’s one option for young athletes to return to some semblance of normalcy in the near future. A plan similar to this one may ultimately be the clearest path to a return for America’s Pastime and the resumption of games on television in some fashion is the only path toward revenue production.

Realignment possibilities

On Friday morning, Bob Nightengale of USA Today noted that MLB is “assessing myriad proposals” but weighing a plan that would completely shift the alignment of the sport for 2020. The proposed plan would eliminate the traditional National and American Leagues with the goal of realigning the six divisions for an abbreviated season.

The proposal would call for all 30 teams returning to their spring training facilities in Arizona and Florida to play regular season games. Putting 15 teams in each state would theoretically reduce travel and minimize risk as much as possible. Divisions would be realigned based on the geography of club’s spring training homes and would mix teams from the National and American Leagues.

In Nightengale’s article, he proposed one realignment structure. This hasn’t been agreed upon, and it’s just one idea, but it’s a feasible snapshot.

GRAPEFRUIT LEAGUE

  • NORTH: New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Pittsburgh Pirates
  • SOUTH: Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
  • EAST: Washington Nationals, Houston Astros, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, Miami Marlins

CACTUS LEAGUE

  • NORTHEAST: Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Oakland A’s
  • WEST: Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels
  • NORTHWEST: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals

While the “Arizona Proposal” seems a bit farfetched and unlikely to get off the cutting-room floor, this dual-state plan appears much more plausible. The plan would allow for 26 ballparks to be put in play as possible game sites. Of those 26 ballparks, Chase Field in Arizona and Marlins Park and Tropicana Field in Florida all have structures that can be closed. The plan would likely call for frequent doubleheaders, with an uneven number of teams in each league.

One idea would be for teams to play 108 games. Under this proposal, clubs would play teams in their newly-formed divisions 12 times while playing 60 games total (six vs. each interdivisional team) against the rest of the league. It would also potentially give the league a trial run at some rule implementations that are likely coming to the sport at some point.

An automated strike zone could be put into practice on a trial basis for this abbreviated 2020 season. It’s also very likely that the rosters will expand and all 30 clubs will be afforded the use of a designated hitter.

Playoff expansion is also something that fans should be preparing themselves for. Five teams from each league currently make the postseason. The shortened season could provide the opportunity for the sport to increase to seven playoff teams in each league and experiment with its practicality.

Traditionalists will hate the movement of the designated hitter into both leagues, but the pragmatist in me is shocked that it hasn’t happened already. The move opens up 15 more spots for players to be inserted on rosters and it’s something that the union would likely welcome. Pitchers are also terrible at hitting, and have enough to worry about anyway. Playoff expansion would be a boon for television and one way for owners to recoup revenue lost from the season delay. Never let a good crisis go to waste.

White Sox implications

While there is no solid plan in place and the plans discussed were just that, either of these models have implications for the Chicago White Sox, both positive and negative. In the plan that Nightengale brought to light, the division alignment was based on geography. Geography should be a positive for the White Sox in normal AL Central circumstances, as they reside in a division with four smaller markets and should theoretically have spending resources that distinguish them from the others.

In the latest proposal, the White Sox would play 48 games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians and Cincinnati Reds — easily the toughest division in the Cactus League. The path to a division title would be arduous, but with 60 games against the rest of the league, playoff expansion still could allow for the White Sox to make the postseason for the first time since 2008.

The White Sox have a young core that wouldn’t be perturbed by the makeshift nature of an abbreviated season. They are exactly the type of club that could thrive in a smaller sample size. With the addition of southpaws Dallas Keuchel and Gio González, the pitching staff is improved. It still wasn’t seen as ideal though and there are some question marks in the bullpen as well. Pitching reinforcements were going to be necessary during a long season, but the organization has amassed a quality group to fill in.

With the late start to the 2020 season, Carlos Rodón and Michael Kopech could have big-league roles that matter for a more significant portion of the season. Pitching prospects like Dane Dunning and Jimmy Lambert could theoretically help the major league team as well. The White Sox should have health on their side for the first time in awhile if the sport does reignite in the not-too-distant future.

Nobody knows when baseball will start and what the sport will look like once it does. It’s refreshing that the league and its players are thinking about outside-the-box ideas to bring some semblance of normalcy back to the country. Whenever baseball does return, the nation will be ready to consume the product. And the White Sox should factor prominently into the festivities whenever they ultimately begin.

 

Minor key: The last bullpen spot

by James Fox, posted in Analysis

Eighth spot to lose: Improbably, a combination of factors give Carson Fulmer the inside track on the final White Sox bullpen spot. (@Carson_Fulmer)

For some pitchers, a relief role is the path to glory and riches. For others, it’s a last stand, a last-ditch attempt to cling to the majors. The Chicago White Sox feature both extremes in their Cactus League bullpen at present, and all manner of pitchers in-between.

The former was taken care of this past weekend. Aaron Bummer’s job security wasn’t in question this spring, but the organization assured so in a big way after announcing a long-term pact with the lefty reliever on Saturday.

The White Sox are loathe to go through the arbitration process with their players, but this contract is a big win for the team beyond dodging that process with Bummer. The 26-year-old was selected in the 19th round of the 2014 draft out of Nebraska and underwent Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer. After posting a 2.13 ERA with a 72% ground ball rate in 67 ⅔ innings in 2019, boasting a 1.3 fWAR powered by an elite sinker, Bummer has arrived as a fixture in the Pale Hose bullpen going forward.

Bullpens are fickle, and deals like this one are uncommon as a result. But the deal guarantees a payout of only $16 million, and the decision-makers likely see that as a pittance in the face of four years of arbitration under super two status for a pitcher like Bummer, who’s seen as a major spoke in the wheel. Regression could obviously occur, but Bummer’s current status and future promise is a massive scouting win for the organization, which should rightfully celebrate his arrival as a dependable big league reliever.

Judgment Day: Carson Fulmer

Carson Fulmer was the third-ranked player in the 2015  draft according to MLB Pipeline. In Doug Laumann’s final year at the helm, the White Sox used the eighth overall pick in an otherwise poor class on the righthander from Vanderbilt. Many observers praised the organization for selecting another quick-moving pitcher and nabbing the “best college starter” in the class.

Pipeline lauded Fulmer for his competitiveness and placed a 70-grade on his fastball with a 60-grade curveball. The 6´0´´ righty threw his fastball in the 93-97 mph range and had been named the Southeastern Conference Player of the Year. Fulmer displayed an electric arm, with a power breaking ball. Carson lacked prototypical size and possessed a tough-to-repeat, highly unorthodox delivery. Many evaluators questioned his command and control, wondering if he would end up in the bullpen down the road.

Fulmer didn’t throw enough strikes in college, and he hasn’t thrown enough strikes as a professional, either. Now hanging onto a roster spot tenuously, at risk of changing organizations, Fulmer’s future hinges on his ability to throw strikes this spring. The 26-year-old posted a 6.26 ERA in 27 big league innings last year, and that was after reworking his delivery in the offseason. He did average 13.5 K/9 with the Charlotte Knights with a 3.24 FIP — but also walked more than five hitters per nine as well.

Fulmer is the likely favorite to earn the eighth and final spot in the White Sox’s bullpen this spring. He’s out of options, and while losing him wouldn’t seem drastic, his draft status likely affords him one last shot in Chicago. He had a horrendous debut (two walks, two Ks, HBP, getting yanked mid-inning) in Sunday’s White Sox spring training opener, but Cactus League stats are a poor way to determine roster decisions; paying attention to how Fulmer looks and feels may end up being more appropriate. Fulmer’s cloudy future should be an interesting storyline to monitor, though, on a pitching staff lacking drama.

Easy decisions

With a 26-man roster taking effect in 2020, the White Sox will begin the season with eight relievers. Roster churn will bring a lot of new faces through Chicago during the course of the years, but the group likely to open the season won’t feature many surprises. The southpaw-hungry pen gives 26-year-old Jace Fry an easy spot, along with Bummer. Fry is a former third-rounder looking to bounce back in 2020, and controlling his walks will play a significant part in that quest.

Alex Colomé and Kelvin Herrera are back for another spin at the back end of the 2020 bullpen. They are both slated to make real money this year and will likely see high-leverage innings early in the season. Colomé is looking to keep thwarting his ugly peripherals, while Herrera just needs to remain healthy. Steve Cishek was signed as a free agent this offseason, and he should serve as quite an insurance policy for Rick Renteria.

Evan Marshall and Jimmy Cordero will likely receive spots as well. Marshall threw 50 ⅓ innings in 2019 and posted a 2.49 ERA. His walk rate increased, but he didn’t allow homers and kept the ball on the ground for the most part. The organization will pay the 29-year-old $1.1 million in 2020. Cordero was claimed off of waivers during the 2019 campaign and threw 37 ⅓ innings for the White Sox in 2019. The 6´4´´, 220-pounder throws very hard but doesn’t strike out many hitters. The sleeveless man posted a 2.89 ERA and is also out of minor league options, giving him an edge for  the big league roster.

Competition at camp

The White Sox released an extensive list of non-roster invites to spring training that included veteran journeymen along with pitching prospects from their own system. Zack Burdi, Matt Foster, Ian Hamilton and José Ruiz are members of the 40-man roster and the likeliest competition for the final spot on the big league roster. Ruiz has big-time power stuff, and threw 40 innings in Chicago in 2019. He’s not the front-runner for a spot breaking camp, but he’s definitely an option. The 25-year-old posted a 5.36 ERA in the majors.

Burdi was a first round pick in 2016 and is looking to finally crack into the bigs. The fireballer is healthy for the first time in awhile and could join the White Sox at some point during the 2020 season. Hamilton looked like a serious option at this time last year, but battled a facial fracture and injuries sustained in a car collision in 2019. Foster was a 20th round pick in 2016 and was added to the 40-man this offseason after posting a 3.76 ERA in Charlotte last year.

Kodi Medeiros, Drew Anderson, Bryan Mitchell, Jacob Lindgren, Caleb Frare, Brady Lail and Tayron Guerrero are some other arms who have an outside shot at a roster spot. Southpaws Medeiros, Lindgren and Frare have the benefit of being lefties, in somewhat high demand in the White Sox system. Mitchell, Anderson and Lail all have big league experience, and while they are more likely to pitch for the Knights than the White Sox, they still qualify as options. Guerrero throws extremely hard, but his peripherals leave much to be desired and is no longer a member of the 40-man.

Outside help?

Fulmer has the inside track at a roster spot due to his draft pedigree and option status, but he’s far from a lock. An outside addition via trade or waiver claim should also be considered a possibility in filling that final spot. The White Sox have added non-roster players to the roster prior to Opening Day in the past, and while it could happen again, its unlikely due to the names currently in the mix.

Fulmer’s grip on the final spot is shaky, and there’s a solid chance that his next big league game will be thrown in a different uniform. The ideal situation for the franchise would be someone like Hamilton or Burdi taking the reins and claiming a major league spot.

Who will be the eighth member of the White Sox’s bullpen to start the year? Internally, Ruiz appears to have the best shot at filling that role. From outside the organization, it’s anyone’s guess. The front office has an entire month to sort it out, and this whole exercise may seem futile once we get to March 26.

The biggest surprise would be to have a spring devoid of bullpen surprises.

 

Filling the gap at the second sack

by James Fox, posted in Analysis

Slugging stopgap: The White Sox need a second baseman. Brian Dozier remains unsigned. Still time before position players report, Rick. (@TwinsPics)

Who ultimately mans second base on opening day for the Chicago White Sox remains a mystery. Going into a season ripe with playoff expectations, relying on Danny Mendick and Leury García for significant contributions seems foolhardy, however.

Who would be the best second baseman for the South Siders in 2020? Let’s take a look at some of the top candidates.

Leader in the clubhouse

Danny Mendick‘s table may in fact be ready, which is puzzling given his sparse usage down the stretch in 2019. There was seemingly plenty of playing time available, but manager Rick Renteria only felt it necessary to grant Mendick 40 major league plate appearances.

Selected in the 22nd round of the 2015 draft out of the University of Massachusetts at Lowell, the 5´10´´, 190-pounder was the definition of a late bloomer and wasn’t even confident that he’d be drafted at all. Mendick’s father has a successful career in commercial real estate, and the infielder was always falling back on that potential option.

White Sox area scouts are generally on the prowl for traits in the latter portion of the draft’s third day. Mendick could play all three infield spots and was considered to be a smart player who was pretty technically sound, with some ability to hit. The scouting department and player development staff never expected Mendick to be a legitimate big league option for 2020, but sometimes organizational depth overachieves when provided an opportunity.

Mendick hit .308/.325/.462 with two homers in a small major league sample in September. He was also pretty solid in spring training, generating some chatter that he make the 2019 squad to start the season. Mendick ultimately returned to the Charlotte Knights and hit .279/.368/.444 in the International League with 17 homers and a 109 wRC+.

The 26-year-old was added to the 40-man roster last year and protected from being included in the Rule 5 draft. Mendick was also a prominent member of the group that took part in the Soxfest festivities in late January. The organization is clearly a fan of Mendick’s potential, so it was quite puzzling that he didn’t receive more playing time to close out his first taste of the majors.

Internal threats

Leury García is back with the White Sox on a one-year deal, and the versatile switch hitter is capable of playing multiple positions. García was the primary leadoff hitter last season and played in 140 contests. Leury was over-exposed in that role, however, and his flaws were very much at the forefront. The 28-year-old hit .279/.310/.378 with eight home runs, but just an 83 wRC+. He was worth 1.3 fWAR mostly due to his versatility.

García was first acquired by the organization back in 2013, in a swap with the Texas Rangers for outfielder Alex Rios. The 5´8´´, 180-pounder can play every infield spot as well as center field and the outfield corners. He strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough (3% BB rate), and he’d be miscast in a starting role once again. García is ideal (and more than capable) as a utility player, and that’s what his likely role will be. He is a candidate to start the season as the starter at second base, but he could also spell Nomar Mazara in the outfield in addition to his infield responsibilities.

Long shots

In some years, there are interesting non-roster invites with a legitimate chance at stealing a roster spot; this won’t be one of those years. For starters, 34-year-old utility man Andrew Romine will take part in big league spring training. The switch-hitter plays all over the diamond and spent the 2019 season in Triple-A for the Phillies. He’s a decent fit as minor league depth, but likely won’t challenge for a roster spot. Former Royals top prospect, 27-year-old Cheslor Cuthbert,will be in Glendale as well. The infielder has really struggled offensively and is unlikely to be more than a placeholder at Charlotte.

The elephant in the room

The ghost of Nick Madrigal can also be described as the elephant in the room. The fourth overall pick in the 2018 draft is the second sacker of the future, and his ascension could begin on March 26 against Kansas City. The Oregon State product will be 23 on Opening Day and projects as an elite defender at second base. In 2019, Madrigal hit .331/.398/.424 with a 117 wRC+ with the Charlotte Knights in Triple-A. He also hit .341/.400/.451 with a .391 wOBA and 150 wRC+ in Double-A with the Birmingham Barons.

If Madrigal starts the year in Chicago, second base is solved. This course of action would be the preference of many members of the fan base and media, but it doesn’t appear to be the most likely outcome on Opening Day. The 5´7´´, 170-pounder will receive plenty of run with the big league team during spring training. Service time questions aside, Madrigal could benefit from some more seasoning in the International League if the organization chooses to go that route.

External options

There are still some veteran infielders on the free agent market who could potentially help the White Sox in 2020. As GM Rick Hahn has mentioned publicly, it might be tough to land a quality player with Madrigal waiting in the wings. It’s not completely out of the question, though. Brian Dozier, Brock Holt, Brad Miller, Jason Kipnis and Ben Zobrist are names that fans have heard before.

Dozier is familiar with the AL Central and would conceivably fit right in with the White Sox. The 32-year-old posted 1.7 fWAR with a 99 wRC+ in 135 games with the Washington Nationals last year and  compiled 19 fWAR during 2014-17 with the Twins. While his overall stat line isn’t overwhelmingly exciting, the right-handed hitter did some serious work against southpaws. The 5´11´´, 200-pounder hit .280/.375/.525 with a 128 wRC+ and .373 wOBA vs lefties in 2019. Dozier has an immense amount of playoff experience and would theoretically be stellar in a backup role as well.

Holt is a cult hero in Boston and could easily return to the Red Sox. He’s been linked to some teams, but hasn’t quite found a deal to his liking. The 31-year-old has very little power but slashed .297/.369/.402 with a 103 wRC+ in 2019. The 5´10´´, 180-pounder hits from the left side and posted a 119 wRC+ vs righties last year. He’s one of myriad options for the White Sox and could contribute to the 2020 club in multiple ways.

Miller is 30, and has played on multiple teams. He was a fairly well-regarded prospect at one time and had a solid season with the Phillies in 2019. The 6´2´´, 215-pound infielder hits left-handed and posted a 126 wRC+ last year. Miller hit 13 home runs and can play all over the infield.

Kipnis is a native of Northbrook and reportedly has drawn interest from the Cubs. The 32-year-old left-handed hitter has struggled in recent years, including a 1.1 fWAR in 2019 with an 82 wRC+. Kipnis was better vs. righties, with a wRC+ of 91, and he did smack 17 long balls.

It’s unclear whether the 38-year-old Zobrist is interested in playing baseball in 2020, but he’d be a potential roster fit if willing. The Eureka native missed most of last season, but can hit from both sides of the plate, play multiple positions and has an array of playoff success.

Likely outcomes

The best outcome for the White Sox sees Madrigal being penciled into the lineup on March 26. Out of all the possible scenarios, though, this one seems the most far-fetched. It would likely only come with a signed contract extension, despite Madrigal not being in the class of players where future service time hangs over the franchise. The organization wants to see him succeed in Charlotte prior before making his big league debut. The marketing department would surely benefit from the crowd on the night of another prospect debut as well.

While Spring Training statistics are often meaningless, Madrigal’s stat line will be pored over from his first start in Glendale. But at this juncture, it seems as if Mendick is the likely Opening Day second baseman, as García’s presence on the club is valuable but not so much as an everyday player in the infield. And don’t forget, Dozier has been linked to the White Sox at points during the offseason, and he remains unsigned.

With Madrigal’s eventual arrival not imminent, Dozier seems like the best realistic outcome prior to the start of Spring Training. Adding a veteran to the mix is still possible — but if not, it appears that second base on the South Side should be in good hands for the foreseeable future.

 

Backup backstop: McCann vs. Collins

by James Fox, posted in Analysis

Zack attack: For Collins, even in a limited platoon role, the time is now. (Tom Borowski/South Side Hit Pen)

James McCann was a bit of a renaissance man for the 2019 Chicago White Sox. Signed as an afterthought for $2 million in advance of another rebuilding season, not much was expected of the former Tigers’ backstop. But all the 6´3´´, 225-pounder proceeded to do was post a 2.3 fWAR season and play in his first All-Star Game. McCann hit .273/.328/.460 with a 109 wRC+ and smacked 18 homers in 118 contests.

McCann was especially good against southpaws last year, posting a stellar wRC+ of 132. The catcher’s .197 ISO was staggering, and contributed a great deal to his career-best campaign. The former second round pick handled his business positively in Chicago and was well-regarded in a leadership role, to the extent that starting pitcher Lucas Giolito credited his new teammate with much of his success in 2019.

Pitch framing is a weakness for McCann, and defense overall isn’t considered to be a strong suit of his. He’s a respected game-caller and adept at throwing out runners while being very studious regarding the planning and preparation that goes into being a catcher.

The second half of 2019 was rough for McCann, and he was much better vs lefties overall. Against righties in 2019, James posted a league-average mark of 100 with his wRC+ and he posted a .319 wOBA. In an ideal situation, McCann would face primarily southpaws in 2020.

Crowded roster

The decision-makers in the front office made a concerted effort this offseason to add talent to the roster for the 2020 season. The rebuild is over, and it’s time to compete for a Central Division title. José Abreu is slated to return to the south side for his seventh season in black and white. Abreu has hit 179 career homers and has always been very successful against left-handed pitching in general.

Abreu signed a three-year contract extension with the White Sox worth $50 million in late November. The deal was met with some consternation due to the anticipated regression of the player, in spite of his gaudy home run and RBI totals in 2019. The soon-to-be 33-year-old Cuban has regressed, and will likely continue to do so. That regression will occur in a comfortable place, though, and hitting southpaws is still something that should be a primary focus.

Playing in 159 games last year, Abreu posted a 117 wRC+ even though his strikeout rate increased and his walk rate keeps falling. The first baseman was a league average offensive performer (100 wRC+) vs righties, and some scheduled days off in the future could best serve all parties. Abreu must be in the lineup vs lefties, however. In 2019, he murdered lefthanders to the tune of a .360/.418/.591 slash line with a 168 wRC+ and 24 homers.

Yasmani Grandal was given the largest free agent contract in the history of the organization back in November as well. The former first-rounder out of Miami is one of the best catchers in baseball. The switch-hitter played in 153 games for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2019, and hit .246/.380/.468 with 28 homers. Yaz posted a 121 wRC+ with a 17% walk rate as well. The 31-year-old was exceptional against lefties, though. While Grandal posted very strong numbers against right-handed pitching (114 wRC+), he was even better (138 wRC+) when he turned around and hit from the right side.

With Grandal as the biggest outside addition to the club, playing time didn’t appear to be an issue for James McCann. His numbers against lefties indicated a role could be carved out in which he split some time at designated hitter in addition to catcher with the newly acquired Grandal. But then …

Parrot party

The White Sox signed 37-year-old slugger Edwin Encarnación in early January. The deal is for one year with a club option for 2021, and the move further signifies a win-now attitude. Encarnación is primarily a designated hitter at this stage of his career, but he could do some moonlighting at first base. In 109 games with the Yankees and Mariners in 2019, he clubbed .244/.344/.531 with 34 home runs while posting a 129 wRC+ and .362 wOBA.

Encarnación has 414 career homers, and the long ball is still a primary focus of his offensive profile. Edwin walked at a 12% clip last year, and while he posted a strong 121 wRC+ vs right handed pitching, he was death to lefties. The slugger hit .245/.375/.594 (.969 OPS) with a .396 wOBA vs southpaws. Encarnación posted a 152 wRC+ vs lefties in 2019. He was signed to play, and he should be in the lineup almost every day. Days off could come against tough righties, but it’s imperative that EE be available to mash against most pitchers.

Zack Collins … left out?

Another name in the 26-man roster mix for the White Sox is former top draft pick Zack Collins. Collins has many detractors, and his style of play wouldn’t be described as aesthetically pleasing — he was billed as a three-true-outcomes performer with defensive questions, after all. He can also play some first base and designated hitter, and has struggled vs lefties throughout his minor league career.

Collins will be 25 years old in February and has nothing to prove at the minor league level. Last year with the Charlotte Knights, the lefty slugger batted .282/.403/.548 with a 140 wRC+ in 88 games. Zack hit 19 homers and posted a .401 wOBA. He possesses plus raw power and plate discipline, and has displayed it across every minor league level: In 2017 at Winston-Salem, Collins posted a 130 wRC+. With the Birmingham Barons in 2018, his wRC+ was 130 in one of the strongest leagues in the minors.

Collins struggled in a small major league sample in 2019 when playing time was quite sparse. In 102 trips to the plate, he posted a 77 wRC+ over the course of 27 games. He showed off some of the plus power to go with a 14% walk rate and a .219 ISO. Collins’ eventual role in the big leagues might be as a part-time player, one who walks and hits for power against right-handed pitching.

Collins vs. McCann

It shouldn’t be a big surprise that McCann’s good name has come up frequently in trade rumors this offseason. He’s a functional piece on a roster, and perfectly suited to be a member of a catching platoon. He no longer fits ideally on the White Sox roster, however. McCann is locked in for 2020 at $5.4 million, which looks tenable on the surface but could make him a difficult trade piece due to his shortcomings. What the White Sox would even look for as a trade return is very debatable.

It will likely be seen as heresy to suggest that Collins fits more appropriately on a winning roster than McCann in this particular case, but orthodoxy should be challenged this time around. McCann would benefit from playing against left-handed pitchers most often, but it’s tough to justify ceding playing time to him at the expense of Encarnación, Abreu and Grandal. That trio of mashers shouldn’t be sitting against lefties just so McCann can see more time.

Collins on the other hand, could serve a purpose and fill an actual need. If proven that he’s playable behind the dish, his left-handed bat could be a benefit for the club. On days when Collins catches, Grandal could stay in the lineup with one of Abreu or Encarnación sitting against a right-handed starter. On the other hand McCann is a solid all-around player, and he needs time as a regular in advance of his first foray into real free agency after this season.

The White Sox may choose to keep all three players, especially with the new roster rules in place that make keeping three catchers much easier. Injuries occur, but with McCann on a one-year deal with a role that’s rendered him superfluous, a trade to a better situation shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone in the near future.

McCann is a professional and would likely accept any role provided to him, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s not thrilled with the situation. McCann is no longer scheduled to attend SoxFest this upcoming weekend, and he will likely be involved in trade rumors for catching needy teams into spring training.

 

 

Friday’s arbitration deadline makes a busy week busier for the White Sox

by James Fox, posted in Analysis

Big payday awaits: Closer Colomé is the sole significant salary expenditure expected through the arbitration process. (@AlexanderColome)

The White Sox continue to add talent this offseason, and right-handed reliever Steve Cishek is the latest addition to the squad. The signing isn’t yet official but in short order, the organization’s expenditures over the course of this offseason will surpass $200 million in total outlay. With a reported agreement for designated hitter Edwin Encarnación also on the precipice of becoming official, it could be a busy week of roster juggling for the franchise.

Friday is the deadline for clubs to reach agreement with arbitration-eligible players. Mookie Betts of the Boston Red Sox has been involved in trade discussions in advance of his penultimate year of arbitration, and he’s expected to set a record for salary among players yet to reach free agency. Kris Bryant‘s situation with the Chicago Cubs is tenuous as well, due partly to the effects of the salary arbitration process. While the White Sox won’t be the focus across the sport in this regard, the club has its own decisions to make by Friday’s exchange date.

As an organization, the White Sox generally like to settle on a number rather than exchanging figures to be glossed over by an arbitrator. The franchise went many years without an arbitration fight, prior to Avisaíl García and Yolmer Sánchez heading down the process in recent years.

This year, six players are eligible to receive salary arbitration from the club.

Catcher James McCann agreed to a $5.4 million contract with the club early in December, and he’s signed on for his final season before he reaches unrestricted free agency. More of these deals should become official in the coming days. Pitchers Alex Colomé, Evan Marshall and Carlos Rodón along with outfielders Leury García and Nomar Mazara are the arbitration-eligible players on the White Sox. Fighting their own players is atypical to the modus operandi employed by the organization, so it’s expected that the five players will settle before the deadline.

The fine folks at MLB Trade Rumors do a commendable job of predicting arbitration raises annually and they see Colomé and Marshall getting somewhere in the neighborhood of $10.3 million and $1.3 million, respectively.

Rodón is in a tricky situation while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery as well, earning $4.2 million last year for just 34 ⅔ innings. Rodón is projected to receive $4.5 million for the 2020 season, in his third year of salary arbitration as a Super Two player.

García, a 28-year-old superutility player, earned $1.55 million last season; because he plays multiple positions for the White Sox, he’s slated to turn his 1.3 fWAR season into a projected $4 million commitment.

Outfielder Mazara is expected to receive a salary bump as well. The 24-year-old has been a bit of an enigma early on in his career. Regarded as one of the best prospects in the game on his way to the Rangers from the minor leagues, Nomar hasn’t lived up to his high billing. The lefty slugger earned $3.3 million in 2019; while struggling mightily vs left-handed pitching throughout his career, Mazara posted an .844 OPS with a 110 wRC+ vs RHP in 2019. He’s expected to receive $5.7 million for 2020.

The 2020 payroll, in review

Jerry Reinsdorf has opened his wallet this offseason, upping overall payroll from some uncommon recent lows. In 2019, the White Sox were 26th in baseball with a total payroll of $91,371,201. The organization currently has leaped to 16th in  payroll and is expected to spend between $125-$130 million in player salary for this upcoming season.

It can be astutely argued that they haven’t gone far enough, but the increase is a marked improvement that has quelled some recent criticism of the front office. The first addition to the 2020 club was catcher Yasmani Grandal back in November. The 31-year-old signed a four-year contract worth $73 million, so the switch-hitting backstop will earn $18.25 million next season.

The front office followed up the contract with a new deal for first baseman José Abreu. Abreu signed a three-year, $50 million contract extension with the team and he’ll earn $12.6 million against the payroll in 2020.

The next two signings slotted right into the starting rotation. First, Gio González signed a one-year contract that will pay him $4.5 million. And the biggest addition on the pitching front came days later, when the White Sox inked veteran southpaw Dallas Keuchel. The 32-year-old will earn $55.5 million over the course of his three-year commitment with the White Sox, and $18 million in 2020.

With the agreements and the trade for Mazara at December’s winter meetings, the front office effectively completed their shopping list. The decision-makers landed two starting pitchers, a right fielder and found some offensive pop from the left side. While the designated shopping list was all checked off, the organization remained motivated to add talent to the 2020 club. Edwin Encarnación is expected to make $11 million next season as the team’s primary designated hitter. Better production in that spot was another priority of general manager Rick Hahn.

And most recently, even the bullpen got a tuneup:

The 33-year-old reliever is the latest addition in Chicago. He’ll earn $5.25 million in 2020 and with an option year, could also be around for multiple seasons.

While five free agents have been added to the team, one of the bigger moves of the offseason was struck with a player already in the organization. Luis Robert will be the opening day center fielder after signing an extension that will keep him in Chicago for the next eight years.

Before their offseason signing frenzy, the White Sox had committed just $14.8 million to three players: Shortstop Tim Anderson, outfielder Eloy Jiménez and reliever Kelvin Herrera were the only members of the team not under arbitration or pre-arb status. Much has been done since that time, giving the roster a radically different look by Opening Day. While the heavy lifting has likely been consummated, another reliever, right-handed hitting outfielder or utility infielder could still be added to the mix, in addition to a bevy of non-roster invitees.

The current White Sox payroll according to Spotrac.com is $119.2 million. Depending on what else the organization decides to add before spring training, the official 2020 payroll should be in the $130 million range. The White Sox are projected to be 16th in baseball, and there’s no reason they can’t ascend into the 11-15 range on an annual basis, as the Washington Nationals are currently 10th in baseball with a total hovering around $152 million.

The White Sox don’t seem likely to threaten the $208 million competitive balance tax threshold anytime soon, and it’s not necessary for them to do so. The payroll should increase continually, right along with the expectations of the team. And nobody will care what the payroll is as long as the team wins division titles and finds a way to keep their own over this next decade.

 

Penned in: A look at the 2020 bullpen options on the South Side

by James Fox, posted in Analysis

Top target: Will Harris is on the short list for several teams, as a veteran, trusted bullpen hand. (@Astros)

Ken Williams and Rick Hahn have been lauded of late for their successful offseason shopping spree in an attempt to turn the Chicago White Sox into a contender in 2020. They’ve accomplished their stated goals in acquiring two starting pitchers, a designated hitter, help in right field and one of the best catchers in baseball.

While there’s been some chatter about the need to further upgrade their outfield mix, it seems as if the bullpen might be the next area of focus.

Possible targets

The best remaining relief option on the free agent market currently is Houston Astros righthander Will Harris. The 35-year-old Harris posted a 1.50 ERA in Houston last year despite a FIP of 3.15. In 60 innings pitched, the 6´4´´, 240-pounder averaged 9.30 K/9 and 2.10 BB/9. Harris is likely looking for a multi-year commitment, and his Baseball Savant page really tells the story of his success.

Harris only falls in the 25th percentile in terms of fastball velocity. He doesn’t throw that hard, but he is impeccable in every other way. His fastball spin rate falls in the 96th percentile in baseball and the curveball spin rate is in the 86th percentile. The righty ranks highly in xWOBA (89th percentile), xSLG (81st percentile) and hard-hit rate (84th percentile). Harris hasn’t been linked to any particular teams yet in free agency.

Steve Cishek is another veteran right hander whose fastball velocity is only in the 18th percentile range. He doesn’t possess a high-octane fastball but he’s in the 77th percentile in fastball spin rate. The 33-year-old sidearmer pitched 64 innings with the Cubs last year and posted a 2.95 ERA. His FIP wasn’t as good (4.54), but he held righties to a .583 OPS on the season. The 6´6´´, 215-pounder averaged just more than 8 K/9 and falls in the 99th percentile in both hard hit rate and exit velocity.

Cishek knows how to get people out, and he’s made a career of doing so. Similarly to Harris, Cishek is likely holding out for a multiyear pact from a club. He hasn’t been linked to any team specifically, but he would fit nicely as a piece in the White Sox’s evolving bullpen.

Two other names on the market who could be potential options are Daniel Hudson and Craig Stammen.

Hudson was a fifth round pick of the White Sox way back in 2008, and made his major league debut with the club before being traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The righthander has had an extensive history of arm troubles but is still just 32. The 6´3´´, 225-pounder posted a 2.47 ERA with a FIP of 3.97 last year. He pitched 73 innings with the Blue Jays and Nationals and completed high-leverage stints on a World Series winner. Hudson has some familiarity with catcher Yasmani Grandal from their days in Los Angeles together with the Dodgers.

According to Jon Morosi of the MLB network, the White Sox have shown interest in righthander Craig Stammen. The 35-year-old was a bit overused in the first half of last year, and some of his numbers reflect that. The 6´4´´, 230-pound reliever posted a 3.29 ERA with a 4.12 FIP, but pitched the majority of his games at the arm-friendly PETCO Park in San Diego. He averaged around 8 K/9 and 1.65 BB/9 over 82 innings last season. Stammen has great command, and surrenders lots of soft contact. In 2018, the big righty posted a 2.73 ERA and accumulated 2.2 fWAR in 79 innings.

The White Sox could also look to the trade market to acquire relief help if necessary. Three of the bigger names out there are Ken Giles of the Blue Jays, Mychal Givens of the Orioles and Ian Kennedy of the Royals. But Giles and Kennedy both have just one season of team control remaining — and Kennedy comes with a significant salary cost of $16.5 million.

Kansas City’s closer was superb in relief last season, though. In 63 ⅓ innings, Kennedy posted a 3.41 ERA with a 2.99 FIP. The converted starter has found a role in relief that works for him and while he’s expensive, he could really help a contender. Kennedy also averaged 10.37 K/9 and just 2.42 BB/9 on the season as well.

Giles, on the other hand, should cost a pretty significant prospect return, and it’s unclear whether Toronto is still open to making a deal before the season. The 29-year-old posted a 1.87 ERA with a 2.27 FIP for the Blue Jays last season. The 6´3´´, 210-pound righty averaged a whopping 14 K/9 with 2.89 BB/9 as well. He threw 53 innings and would be a huge upgrade for the White Sox. Givens is in a similar spot on a bad AL East club, but the Orioles would definitely trade him under the right circumstances. The 29-year-old posted a 4.57 ERA with a 3.62 xFIP in 63 innings for the Orioles in 2019. He also averaged 12.3 K/9 on the year and his stuff is still a factor.

Current Mix

The White Sox bullpen fared decently in 2019 and finished the season in the middle of the pack of the American League in most statistical categories. Arb-eligible Alex Colomé and Evan Marshall don’t have their 2020 salary figures yet, but they seem likely to return to the club. They’ll be joined by righthander Kelvin Herrera and southpaws Aaron Bummer and Jace Fry.

Colomé is expected to earn around $10 million in his final season of arbitration. The 30-year-old righty posted a 2.80 ERA last year, but his peripherals weren’t kind and he’s likely in for some regression. Colomé’s strikeout rate was down as he averaged 8.11 K/9 and 3.39 BB/9. In 61 innings, he posted a 4.08 FIP with a 45% ground ball rate, and his stuff deteriorated some over the course of the season; his Baseball Savant page illustrates that some trouble could be on the horizon.

Given his overall performance in 2019 Colomé will return as the closer in 2020, but his numbers indicate that an upgrade might be essential. He finished in the 30th percentile in fastball velocity and 23rd percentile in fastball spin rate. Colomé’s strikeout rate falls in the 45th percentile, while his hard-hit rate was in the 12th percentile range. He still gets outs, but he was also in the 2nd percentile in exit velocity last year — a huge concern going forward.

Under contract for $8.5 million next year is 29-year-old righthander Kelvin Herrera, and he’ll be counted on in some capacity as well. The 5´10´´, 200-pounder struggled last year working his way back from a lower leg injury, posting an ERA of 6.14 with a 4.58 FIP. He did throw 51 ⅓ innings and averaged 9.29 K/9, but also 4.03 BB/9. Herrera has a long track record of success, and was clearly battling last year. He should be better in 2020 based on his late season results, but counting on him as an integral part of the bullpen mix might be foolish.

Former 19th-rounder Aaron Bummer had his breakout campaign in 2019 with the White Sox. The 26-year-old southpaw posted a 2.13 ERA with a 3.41 FIP and compiled 1.3 fWAR on the season. The 6´3´´, 200-pound lefty averaged 8 K/9 while displaying a stellar 72.1% ground ball rate in almost 68 innings pitched. Bummer was very good vs righties last year, but was death on lefthanders (.178/.213/.233).

Jace Fry was a third round pick of the White Sox out of Oregon State in 2016. He’s strictly a reliever now after undergoing two Tommy John surgeries, and he struggled in 2019 after a breakout season the year prior. The 26-year-old has elite spin on his fastball but posted a 4.75 ERA with a 4.41 xFIP in 2019. The southpaw averaged 11.13 K/9 but also 7.04 BB/9 in 55 innings with the Sox last year. Left-handed pitching is an organizational weakness at the moment, and Fry should lock up a spot on the 2020 squad fairly easily.

Evan Marshall was a bit of a revelation last season. The 29-year-old righthander posted just a 4.30 FIP but his statcast data was very positive as well. The 6´2´´, 225-pounder posted a 2.49 ERA and averaged 7.28 K/9 in 2019. Marshall threw 50 ⅔ innings and should be a lock to return once pitchers and catchers report. Marshall is projected to earn just more than $1 million in arbitration. Marshall falls in the 81st percentile in curveball spin, 78th percentile in fastball spin, 90th percentile in exit velocity and 89th percentile in hard-hit rate.

Internal Options

Non-roster invitees to spring training haven’t been announced yet, but the organization has gotten lucky finding contributors from that pile in recent years. Looking at the 40-man roster, Zack Burdi, Jimmy Cordero, Dylan Covey, Matt Foster, Carson Fulmer, Tayron Guerrero, Ian Hamilton, Kodi Medeiros, and José Ruiz will be given an opportunity to make the 2020 club.

Cordero pitched well last year after being claimed on waivers in June. The 28-year-old righty throws really hard (95th percentile in fastball velocity). The 6´4´´, 222-pounder posted a 2.89 ERA with a 3.69 xFIP in 2019. Cordero was very solid to close out the year and he threw almost 38 innings down the stretch. He has a solid shot to pitch for the 2020 club, but he’s out of options at present.

Another hard thrower and recent addition that is also out of options is former Marlins flamethrower Guerrero. Guerrero was claimed off of waivers earlier this offseason, and he’ll have an opportunity this spring as well. The 28-year-old falls in the 100th percentile in fastball velocity but he posted a 6.26 ERA last year. He was hit hard and often, and averaged 7.04 BB/9 with Miami.

Fulmer was the No. 8 overall pick in the 2015 draft. Things haven’t gone well since for the former Commodore. The 26-year-old righthander posted a 6.26 ERA with a 6.29 FIP with the White Sox last year. He averaged 8.23 K/9, but 6.59 BB/9 as well. Carson threw 34 innings with the Charlotte Knights as well and averaged 13.5 K/9, 5.5 BB/9 and a 3.24 FIP. Fulmer’s spin rates are elite (88th percentile in curveball spin and 91st percentile in fastball spin) but his command is too erratic to put them to use consistently. Fulmer is also out of options, and could find himself on another team soon.

Covey, like Fulmer, has gotten lots of chances and the White Sox just can’t decide what role is best for him. He could be outrighted off of the roster once further additions are made and offer depth in Triple-A. Kodi Medeiros is a young lefty who will be given an opportunity in spring training. The first-rounder has failed as a starter, but met some success after transitioning to the bullpen last season.

Ruiz is another young, hard thrower who is short on experience but long on stuff. He was given a pretty decent-sized leash last year and likely gets an opportunity again. Ruiz possesses minor league options and could help to fill out the Knights bullpen to start the season. Foster was protected in advance of December’s Rule 5 draft, and he’ll be in the mix as well. The 24-year-old threw 55 innings for the Knights and posted a 3.76 ERA while averaging more than 10 K/9.

There will be many options for the 2020 Chicago White Sox to use out of the bullpen. Any of Reynaldo López, Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodón could pitch some meaningful relief innings at some point, however unlikely that seems. Chances are, the South Side decision makers will make a couple of additions to the bullpen before the start of the season to enhance their chances of holding leads and winning games. Some prospects could shine and force their way into the mix as well.

The higher-leverage options in the bullpen appear to be set until upgrades can be made, possibly not until the summer. The best outcome for this club, though, would be getting serious help from within. Burdi and Hamilton are hard-throwing righties coming back from injuries in 2018. If either pitcher can round themselves into form, they could be mainstays in Chicago for a long time. After them, Tyler Johnson and Codi Heuer are fairly recent draft picks who could be knocking on the door to a bullpen audition as well.

 

Fixing a Hole: White Sox still looking to patch rotation

by James Fox, posted in Analysis

Who’s on the South Side starters short list to sign? This guy! (@HyunJinRyu99)

Zack Wheeler is truly the one who got away for the Chicago White Sox.

A swift and sudden deviation from the franchise’s free agent strategy was evident after the embarrassing escapade involving the pursuit of Manny Machado last winter, with many fans sick of hearing about the White Sox settling for second and bragging about being hypothetical bridesmaids.

Atypical to the Machado discussions, the front office handled the Wheeler negotiations like a large-market operation should. With Wheeler, the organization was out in front of the pack and jumped the marketplace in a similar fashion to how they landed free agent catcher Yasmani Grandal in November. Cold, hard cash had more to do with the early signing than anything else, and a similar plan was put together to land the 29-year-old righthander.

There were many reports linking the White Sox to Wheeler prior the Winter Meetings, more fact than fiction as the front office was bearing down on its top pitching target. But after offering five years and $125 million and making a significant gamble on upside, the White Sox were spurned once again. For no fault of their own, Wheeler ended up remaining closer to his family on the East Coast and the White Sox were left pondering what the future would entail without their pitching prize.

The front office had reason to believe that a deal with Wheeler appeared imminent — until he changed course. The South Side decision makers have lost out similarly for pitchers like Jordan Lyles and Wade Miley who chose a destination (Texas) or familiarity (Cincinnati) instead of taking the money to play in Chicago. These things happen every year in free agency, and not only to the White Sox.

The organization will have to take the arrows that they’ve rightfully earned after 11 straight seasons without a playoff appearance. The White Sox just haven’t secured the trust of their fanbase, regardless of how sound their 2020 free agent plan actually was. People don’t like to be told how to act, but irrationality is at an all-time high in response to the perceived inaction by the club on the pitching front. A minor league signing as minute as Ross Detwiler‘s return had social media in an uproar, despite the need for depth at Triple-A Charlotte being an offseason necessity as well.

Salvageable winter for Sox? 

There are still two free agent starters on the market who would offer the White Sox a stabilizing force in the middle of their young rotation going forward. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score has reported on the club’s interest in lefties Dallas Keuchel and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote a detailed piece on Scott Boras’ remaining clients, and the two southpaws are among them.

According to Feinsand, Boras seems to be focused on getting deals completed. “The pitching market has obviously been fast and furious as it was from the start,” Boras says. “Clubs are identifying their needs, and we’re certainly narrowing the corridor of finality. It could happen soon.” While baseball’s most recognizable power agent wouldn’t disclose the names of interested parties, Feinsand listed the White Sox as one of the primary suitors for both pitchers.

Ryu signed with the Dodgers back in 2013 after pitching multiple seasons in the Korean Baseball Organization. He just completed his best season as a professional after compiling a 4.8 fWAR and finishing in second for the National League Cy Young Award. The 6´3´´, 255-pound southpaw has battled myriad injuries in his time pitching in the United States. He was mostly healthy in his 182 ⅔ innings last season. The 32-year-old lefty posted a 2.32 ERA with a 3.10 FIP. Ryu only threw 82 ⅓ innings in 2018 but posted a 1.97 ERA in that limited time. That innings total was fewer than 2017, when he threw 126.

Keuchel’s market was nonexistent at a price point that suited him last offseason, so he signed a one-year placemarker deal late and joined the Atlanta Braves after the All-Star break in 2019. The 31-year-old southpaw no longer has a draft pick attached to his services, making his market more vibrant this time around. The 6´3´´, 205-pounder posted a 3.75 ERA with a 4.06 xFIP in 112 ⅔ innings last year. However, Keuchel hasn’t been the same since his 5.7 fWAR campaign for the Astros back in 2015.

Keuchel has a solid reputation as a teammate and has a long history of working positively with younger starters. He still induces lots of ground balls and would fit in nicely as a stabilizing force in the middle of the White Sox rotation. After seeing the deals already inked on the free agent market, it appears that Dallas would be seeking a four-year contract at a similar annual average value to what Madison Bumgarner pulled down in Arizona.

Another rumored name to fill the gaping hole in the rotation is Boston’s David Price. Feinsand and others have also linked the former Commodore to the White Sox in trade discussions. The Red Sox have indicated a need to get under the competitive balance tax, and shedding some of his exorbitant salary could be one way to appease the wishes of ownership. It doesn’t seem likely that new baseball operations chief Chaim Bloom would attach a guy like Andrew Benintendi to move Price’s deal, but Boston could offer to pay down the contract substantially.

The rumor is that Boston might be willing to eat $30 million of Price’s contract, and a three-year, $66 million outlay would be much more palatable for the White Sox. Price is a leader and lauded as a fantastic teammate. The 34-year-old former first overall pick is recovering from wrist surgery but should be ready for spring training. The southpaw posted a 2.3 fWAR with a 3.62 FIP and averaged almost 11 K/9, making him an attractive alternative if things don’t work out on the free agent market.

Insulating the rotation

According to reports, a familiar face will be playing his home games at 35th and Shields for the first time.

The White Sox drafted González with the 38th overall pick back in 2004. He’s never actually pitched a game with the big league club, but this is his third spin with the organization. The 34-year-old lefty offers insulation to a starting rotation in need of two veterans. González is a back-end starter at this point in his career, a fly ball pitcher who walks too many guys, but he posted a 3.50 ERA and accumulated 1.4 fWAR in 87 innings with the Brewers last year. He’s also familiar with new catcher Grandal and is said to be an excellent teammate.

González is a move in the same vein as Wade Miley or Martin Perez would have been. The White Sox need to procure two starters this offseason. The order in which they do so isn’t important. The perceived lack of a Plan B for the organization has ruffled the feathers of an impatient fan base that is ready to win. The organization has a stated goal of adding two starters this winter, and they should be held to that platitude. The quest for another starter should continue as this latest González contract becomes finalized.

Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodón will likely pitch at some point for the 2020 Chicago White Sox. Dane Dunning and Jimmy Lambert are on the mend from elbow surgery and should be knocking on the door as well. The starting rotation at the conclusion of next season will look much different than it looks currently. While the same figures at the top of the organization remain, the franchise as a whole is much different.

The decision makers stated a need for starting pitching, and they meant it. González is a step in the right direction. Will the front office make a trade for a former Cy Young winner, or destroy its Boras narrative instead?

The team’s intention is to add someone to their rotation who is better than what they’ve already added. The time to prove it is now.

 

A weird and wonderful fit: Edwin Encarnacion in Pale Hose

by James Fox, posted in Analysis

All business: Encarnación is all about mashing. Think he’d fit in a weak White Sox offense? (@desusnice)

While the decision-makers at 35th and Shields are likely working feverishly to fill vacant spots in the starting rotation, another offensive upgrade is ready to be fitted in black and white.

Nomar Mazara was added to the outfield mix recently, and while the acquisition didn’t aptly whet the appetite of White Sox fans, it’s an upgrade nonetheless. White Sox right fielders accumulated a -1.3 fWAR last year with Leury García rounding out as the only positive contributor. The only thing worse than the club’s production in right field in 2019 was their production at designated hitter however.

The White Sox as a collective finished 17th in baseball, including dead last in the American League in fWAR (-3.5 fWAR) at the DH position. Two National League clubs performed better (albeit in a much smaller sample)! In 773 plate appearances, White Sox batters slashed .197/.275/.342 with a 64 wRC+ and .266 wOBA in the designated hitter role. Players presiding in this precarious position hit just 25 homers on the year as well. It’s not the most glamorous spot on the roster by any means, but putrid production stinks, no matter how it’s shaken.

During his media scrums in the initial stages of this important offseason, GM Rick Hahn bemoaned the production in right field and designated hitter. The architect of the 2020 roster made it a point of emphasis to state that those areas would be priorities this offseason, along with numerous additions to the pitching staff. The thirst for pitching hasn’t been quite quenched yet, but the club went away from its publicized target list with the signing of switch-hitting catcher Yasmani Grandal. Grandal’s addition was welcomed and warranted, but it didn’t solve the stated trouble spots.

Multiple transactions weren’t officially filed while the front office vacationed in San Diego for baseball’s annual winter meetings, but that doesn’t mean work wasn’t being done. Veteran hardball scribe Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reported on Thursday that the team’s brass met with the representatives for designated hitter Edwin Encarnación. EE is a free agent after spending last year with the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees. He would be an interesting roster fit if added, but provides a definitive upgrade at the dish.

Encarnación was a ninth-round pick of the Texas Rangers in the 2000 draft and made his debut with the Cincinnati Reds in 2005. The 6´1´´, 230-pound, then-third baseman carved out a career after moving north of the border to play with the Blue Jays. The 36-year-old slugger has hit more than 30 homers in every season since 2012 and has compiled 414 during his career. Edwin possesses immense raw power but also has posted walk rates around 12% throughout his big league tenure.

In 2019, the Dominican hit .244/.344/.531 in 486 plate appearances for the Mariners and Yankees. Encarnacion’s season was cut short with a fractured wrist, but he still came to the plate 486 times. He posted a .363 wOBA with a 129 wRC+ and once again eclipsed the 30 home run-mark. He posted a 2.5 fWAR, largely attributed to his success vs LHP: a .969 OPS with a 152 wRC+ vs southpaws. The power presence is substantial from both sides but in 2019, Encarnación posted a staggering ISO% of .349.

Roster Gymnastics 

As the roster currently stands, the 26-man rule makes it easier to utilize a third catcher in the big leagues. Grandal will join José Abreu, James McCann and Zack Collins in Chicago’s DH mix. If Edwin Encarnacion were added, he would likely be the primary designated hitter and play most days. His bat would be essential in the lineup against left-handed pitching. According to Baseball Savant, Encarnacion places in the 69th percentile in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. He’s also elite in xWOBA (78th percentile) and xSLG (83rd percentile).

It’s not likely that a club has ever truly had too many hitters or too much offense. Versatility is important, however, and while Encarnación can absolutely mash, the White Sox would be left with a multiplicity of the same type of performer to deal with. It seems likely that at the current juncture, McCann would either be catching or used in the DH spot against all lefties. McCann posted a 132 wRC+ vs southpaws during his All-Star campaign last year. Collins is in the mix as well and while he’s not a roster lock, he would likely serve as the DH vs righties if the season were to start tomorrow.

As the club’s first round pick in 2016, Collins likely gets a look in the big leagues in 2020. The 24-year-old, left-handed slugger posted a 140 wRC+ with the super ball in Triple-A Charlotte last year. He has big-time power potential and plate discipline (14% walk rate in Chicago) and could do some damage immediately vs. right handers.

Grandal has a long history of hitting all pitchers adequately. In 2019, the switch-hitting catcher posted a 138 wRC+ vs LHP to go along with a 114 wRC+ vs RHP. Grandal signed a $73 million contract with the White Sox this offseason, and his ability to hit and also play first base ensures him of a full season of plate appearances. Abreu is entering his seventh season with the club and his offensive profile is similar to that of Encarnación.

Encarnación gets on base more often, and Abreu hits for a higher average at this point. Both players possess premium power and they both destroyed lefties in 2019 (Abreu posted a 168 wRC+ vs left handers last year). It’s imperative that Abreu be in the lineup against all southpaws going forward. José was a league-average performer (99 wRC+) vs righties, though, and tough decisions on who gets into the lineup might have to be made if Encarnación were to be added to the mix.

When tough righties take the mound, Abreu should probably take a seat and wait for pinch-hitting opportunities. He wasn’t signed for $50 million last month to be a platoon player, though. There could be real lineup construction issues with Encarnación needing a spot for games where McCann ends up catching. But those are probably good problems for a team as offensively-challenged as the White Sox, though.

Dingers are fun, and Edwin Encarnación hits lots of them. As a subscriber to the methodology of the phrase, “Ball Go Far, Team Go Far,” EE would enhance the White Sox’s chances in 2020. Lineup construction can be worried about at a later date.

 

Filling the South Side’s crater in right field

by James Fox, posted in Analysis

Running down a dream: The White Sox begin their second year of serious Joc pursuit this offseason. (Wikipedia)

Paltry production has been prevalent in the outfield at Guaranteed Rate Field in general over the past few years, but the crater  in right field specifically has become a larger issue. The White Sox were 29th in baseball in right field production last season, according to FanGraphs. The hodgepodge of Leury García, Charlie Tilson, Ryan Cordell, Jon Jay and Daniel Palka combined for a total of -1.3 fWAR in 2019. The only positive contributor was García, with an fWAR of 1.3, and he posted a putrid wRC+ of 83 in more than 600 plate appearances.

Rick Hahn has discussed the outfield vacancy ad nauseum and it’s a near-certainty that someone else will be on display for the fine folks in Section 108 next year. Luis Robert is a Top 5 prospect in the sport and profiles in center field. He should spend the majority of the 2020 baseball season in Chicago. Besides him, though, the once-promising group of outfield depth in the White Sox’s minors have suffered from setbacks and poor performance.

Micker Adolfo, Luis Basabe and Blake Rutherford are all on the 40-man roster but aren’t ready to play games in Chicago. Luis González and Steele Walker are other options, but not on the 40-man. Adam Engel could carry his steady glove back into a reserve role on the South Side and Eloy Jiménez will be a fixture in left.

The rest of the outfield is an empty canvas screaming to be colored.

Dollars to spend

Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna are the top names available on the open market, and the White Sox could have some level of interest in both players. The market for Ozuna has been quiet in the early going, and his derby is a bit of an unknown at this point. The 29-year-old received a qualifying offer from the St. Louis Cardinals after posting a 110 wRC+ in 2019. He provides above-average power after launching 29 balls over the fence last year and 148 total over the course of his young career.

But the White Sox need to fill their hole in right field, and one potential issue with Ozuna is the fact that he hasn’t played the position recently. With the Cardinals, he’s been strictly in left as we recently surmised. One thing that the Dominican does have going for him is his history with new hitting coach Frank Menechino. The White Sox’s recently appointed swing master oversaw Ozuna’s 5.0 fWAR season in Miami, when he posted a 143 wRc+.

Interest in Castellanos was reported back at the start of November. Jon Morosi of MLB Network chimed in and echoed similar sentiments, in addition to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The White Sox would prefer to add lineup balance in the form of a left-handed hitter, but it’s imperative to not be slaves to handedness in this regard. The 27-year-old former first-rounder can really hit. Castellanos is also quite familiar with the AL Central after spending the majority of his career in Detroit with the Tigers.

The 6´4´´, 200-pounder was a different player after a deadline trade to the Cubs, and the performance may have caused some value inflation. Castellanos is regarded as a subpar defender in an outfield corner and he’s also a client of superagent Scott Boras. After hitting 27 homers in 2019, Castellanos has racked up 120 in his career. He was death to southpaws last year, posting a wRC+ of 190, and has destroyed lefties in general during his career. In 2019, Castellanos slugged .525 with a 121 wRc+ and .357 wOBA. His .236 ISO was stellar after posting a 130 wRC+ with a .363 wOBA in 2018.

Yasiel Puig, Kole Calhoun and Corey Dickerson are tertiary options on the market who are readily available as well. Puig is cantankerous at times and full of shenanigans, but he’s Cuban and really fun. The 28-year-old hit 24 home runs in 2019 but was a league average offensive player (101 wRC+) for the Reds and Cleveland. He posted a 123 wRC+ in 2018. He’d likely be a backup plan at best for the 2020 White Sox.

Calhoun and Dickerson are both lefties with some power, and would offer lineup balance for the Sox. Calhoun is 32 years old, plays above-average defense and hit 33 homers in 2019. He also struck out a ton, selling out for his most productive power season to date. The former Halo posted a 108 wRC+ with a staggering .236 ISO and performed admirably vs. right-handed pitching. Dickerson is 30 years old and only hit 12 homers in 2019, but posted a 127 wRC+. He reached base a ton, with a .367 wOBA and smashed righties to the tune of a 136 wRC+.

Dickerson and Calhoun are solid players, but the White Sox are likely looking for more.

Trade winds are blowing

The elephant in the room this offseason is Boston Red Sox star Mookie Betts. The Carmines are in a tough spot with their budget, and new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom may be obligated to trade his star player. The 27-year-old outfielder is one of the very best players in the sport and he’s looking to cash in on a free agent contract in excess of $300 million next off-season. Betts has accumulated 37.2 fWAR in six big league seasons while compiling 17 fWAR over his last two years. It would be a surprise to see the White Sox meet the perceived asking price for him at this juncture.

Another former All-Star on the trade market is Starling Marte of the Pittsburgh Pirates. With Ben Cherington looking to put his stamp on the organization, it’s highly likely that Marte moves to a new organization at some point. The 31-year-old center fielder has two years left on his contract and has an arm strong enough to play in a corner. Starling put up 3.0 fWAR with a 119 wRC+ and 23 homers in 2019. He doesn’t walk a lot and he hits from the right side. He doesn’t solve the White Sox’s left-handed problem, but he’d be a solid acquisition nonetheless.

Charlie Blackmon and Shin Soo-Choo are two more veteran names on the trade market. The White Sox have been linked to Blackmon in the past. His contract is abhorrent, but some of it could be paid down by Colorado. The 33-year-old has declining defensive ability, and his splits away from Coors Field are quite troubling. The Rockies outfielder hit .314/.364/.576 with 32 home runs. Blackmon posted a 2.0 fWAR with a 125 wRC+ and .387 wOBA. Choo is a platoon player at this stage, but a very good one. The 37-year-old posted a 127 wRC+ vs righties last year.

Two young lefties who might be growing out of favor with their current clubs could be available as well. Gregory Polanco hasn’t lived up to the hype in Pittsburgh, and the new management team could look to move the 28-year-old right fielder. Polanco slumped through 167 plate appearances last year but he posted a 123 wRC+ in 2018. He has struggled against lefties throughout his career, though, and selling low may not be the best idea for the Pirates at this time. Texas Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara is another player who has been linked to the White Sox in the past. The 24-year-old hits from the left side and has three years of contract control remaining. Mazara’s overall 2019 numbers aren’t promising, but he did post a 110 wRC+ vs righties.

Likely outcomes

The decision-makers for the Chicago White Sox will embark to San Diego this weekend for next week’s Winter Meetings. Pitching will likely remain a priority for the Pale Hose after narrowly missing on preferred target Zack Wheeler. The market is moving a little quicker this year, though, and the outfield hole could be filled at any time. Nick Castellanos has an uncertain market right now, but he could be an option to sign next week. Trade talks will likely continue as well.

Jerry DiPoto has begun his annual reshaping of the Seattle Mariners, and outfielder Mitch Haniger could be a White Sox target after being bandied in trade proposals in recent seasons. DiPoto has downplayed the rumors in regards to Haniger and is reportedly reluctant to sell low on the 28-year-old. The outfielder missed most of last season with a ruptured testicle and related back issues following the procedure. He did display mostly league average offensive production with 15 bombs last year in 63 games, however.

In limited time in 2019, Haniger’s .244 ISO was stellar and he possesses big raw power. The 6´2´´, 215-pounder posted a 137 wRC+ with a .367 wOBA in 2018. He compiled 4.5 fWAR after hitting 26 home runs while displaying a 10% walk rate. The Mariners have a collection of young outfielders who are approaching the majors and something will have to give soon enough. DiPoto loves making deals, and Haniger could be on the move next week.

According to Nightengale, the White Sox have again inquired with the Los Angeles Dodgers on the availability of outfielder Joc Pederson. The 27-year-old outfielder was a trade target last year as well before talks were halted due to twitter and Joc remained in La La Land. Pederson would be a great fit for the White Sox’s roster. He’s a solid defender in right field and he possesses immense power potential from the left side.

The 6´2´´, 220-pounder is in his final year of arbitration and he hit .249/.339/.538 with the Dodgers last season. Pederson murders righties to the tune of a 137 wRC+ and would be a force in the middle of the Chicago lineup. He posted a 127 wRC+ with a .362 wOBA and accumulated 3.0 fWAR in 2019 as well. It’s unknown how serious the talks have become, or what Andrew Friedman and his staff would even be looking for in return for the slugger at this point.

The White Sox will have a new right fielder in 2020. The bigger questions are where that player comes from and how much it costs to acquire him. The front office could rub elbows with Boras and keep Castellanos in the Second City. They could make a trade for one of the readily-available bats on the market. They could even go off the board entirely and break that story on the team’s official twitter.

The good thing for the organization, though, is that a plethora of solid options exist and anything will likely be an upgrade.

Follow James on twitter.

 

Yasmani Grandal signals a welcome change for White Sox

by James Fox, posted in Analysis

Gang’s all here: Well, with the way the White Sox are spending, maybe not all … (@WhiteSox)

Yasmani Grandal was the perfect target for the Chicago White Sox, and the organization converted on that target prior to Thanksgiving.

The four-year, $73 million commitment made to the Cuban-born star is the largest outlay in franchise history, but still comes in as a bargain on the surface. High tides raise all boats, and as far as the White Sox are concerned, the organization possesses more cache with the new backstop aboard.

The front office can now continue subsequent free agent discussions with the best catcher in the American League in tow. The 31-year-old was first among big league catchers in OBP (.381), third in wRC+ (121), and second in fWAR (5.2) in 2019. Grandal hit .246/.380/.468 with the Brewers last year, in a career-high 153 games. He posted a .361 wOBA with a stellar .222 ISO as well. Yasmani also hit 28 homers and walked at a 17% clip, totaling 109 on the season.

The decision-makers in the White Sox front office have emphasized the need for left-handed bats this offseason, and the addition of the best free agent fit on the market dramatically advances that cause. The switch-hitter posted a 114 wRC+ and a .350 wOBA vs righties last season. He’s really good from the left side, and provides thump (17 homers in 2019) vs. right-handed pitching. He was even better against lefties, though. While hitting just 11 of his 28 home runs against southpaws, Grandal torched them overall, to the tune of a 138 wRC+ and .386 wOBA.

White Sox hitters struggled to reach base at an adequate clip under Todd Steverson, and more importantly over the course of their rebuild. Grandal is a multiplier in a sense, though, providing a different way to approach plate appearances.

“Last year, I made some strides into getting guys to understand the value to actually getting on base,” Grandal told the media yesterday. “Obviously, the more guys we get on base, the more opportunities we have to score. At the end of the day, if you score, you’re going to win.”

Another perceived change for the White Sox is the value of stolen strikes via pitch framing. Grandal is one of the best in the sport and will eventually be a candidate for the Hall of Frame. He saved 17 framing runs last year, the best mark in baseball. It will be a welcomed change for a White Sox organization that has been bottom-five in pitch framing over the past two seasons.

GM Rick Hahn spoke effusively yesterday about Grandal’s value to the franchise, and even tackled the pitch framing questions on a media conference call: “Obviously, Yasmani is very strong in the framing area, and that’s the huge positive for our pitchers and it’s a good portion of the benefit that he brings. We knew where we ranked last year both externally and internally in terms of our framing metrics. It was an area where we could get better. Again, this call could go on for another 20, 30 minutes in terms of talking about all the positive things that Yasmani brings to the table. Framing is certainly one of them. But it doesn’t stop there.”

Hahn has stated emphatically that the “money will be spent,” and his front office took the first step toward backing that up on Thursday. The White Sox landed a big pretty fish for their roster ,and it’s ideally foreshadowing things to come.

“This is an elite add at a premium position today. And now it’s on to the next one,” Hahn said. That next one could be swayed by the possibility of playing with Grandal instead of taking the leap to sign on with the young talent already in the organization and banking on the already assembled talent core.

While some will remain rightfully skeptical of the club’s business practices, actually getting Grandal to sign on the dotted line shows that the White Sox are serious about winning and winning soon.

“Seeing the direction that the program is going in and talking to them a little bit about what their future plans are and what their goals were, it kind of got to me a little bit,” Grandal said yesterday on his conference call. “Their pitching staff excites me a lot, just because there are a lot of good, young arms that can be great. Hopefully, I can help them out to be the best that they can be. Hopefully, by the end of the four years we made a deep run in the postseason and, God willing, we were able to win a championship.”

It only takes one player to agree to terms and change the fortunes of a moribund squad. Grandal listened to the White Sox’s pitch and then took their money. He provides things they lack: power, on-base ability and left-handedness, in addition to the potential boon the pitching staff will incur. His friendship with Zack Collins and Cuban heritage are both interesting subplots to the signing as well. But most important is what it signals to the rest of the baseball world.

Snickering and snide comments about $73 million being the biggest deal in franchise history glosses over the fact that however small of a hurdle it is, the hurdle was in fact cleared. In an expectantly busy offseason for the club, that number is one that could be shattered again in short order.

As the new backstop did the typical “welcome to town” media rounds on Thursday, radio host Danny Parkins of The Score asked Grandal why he chose the White Sox. The response was a short and sweet: “Why not?”

In the end, money talks, and Grandal found $73 million reasons to relocate to Chicago. While not expected to be the big-market behemoths on par with the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs and Red Sox, the Pale Hose have more financial might than the flyover cities who inhabit the American League Central.

There’s nothing stopping the Chicago White Sox from becoming the goliath in a division full of financial Davids. This is what a seat at the table truly looks like. The organization identified a true need and went out and landed their top target. For their sake, it’s a playbook that should continue into the future.

Yasmani Grandal makes a salient point. Why not the White Sox?

Follow James on twitter.